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October 1, 2019

by | Oct 1, 2019 | Quarterly Letters

Dear Client: Returns for the major stock indices for 2019, and the current bond and money market yields are as follows: Index YTD 2019 Dow Jones Industrial Average     16.81% S&P 500     20.44% Fixed Income Yields 1 year 5 year 10 year 30 year Municipals 1.27% 1.28% 1.47% 2.11% US Treasuries 1.75% 1.55% 1.67% 2.12% Fidelity Government Cash Reserves Money Market Fund  1.69% As we celebrate our 25th year at LYNCH & Associates, we believe it is important to recognize that the equity markets are having a great year.  Despite the negative sensationalism in the financial media, the markets are only one percent off of their all-time highs.  The month of August gave investors a negative return as the looming recession was the focus and every media pundit seemed certain of its imminence.  As near all-time highs came in September, much of this hype has subsided.  We believe it is important to remember that even though recessions are a natural part of the business cycle, they do not always bring certain market declines.  We remind you that during five of the last ten recessions the equity markets increased.  As we have written, a common thought process is to immediately ascribe the pain of the most recent recession (Great Recession of 2008-09) as the standard market reaction to a recession.  It is easy to think we may be due for a recession (and perhaps we are) being that a decade has now passed, but recessions do not come from old age as we note that Australia has not had a recession for 28 years.  For many reasons, we have...