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January 1, 2016

by | Jan 1, 2016 | Quarterly Letters

Dear Client: Let us first wish you a Happy New Year!  We hope 2016 will be a healthy, fulfilling and prosperous year for you and your family. Since most of our clients have at least a portion of their investments in equities, now is a good time to review how the past year compares to the S&P 500 over the last decade:   2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 +15.79% +5.49% -37.00% +26.46% +15.06% +2.11% +16.00% +32.39% +13.68% +1.40%   From a return perspective, 2015 was a disappointing period for stocks.  The long term positives for stocks were offset by worries over the effects a Federal Reserve tightening might have on the United States economy, a drop in oil prices and a slowdown in China. While we are aware of these market concerns, they have not altered our long-term positive outlook on the markets and here is why: Federal Reserve tightening:  On December 16, 2015 the Federal Reserve raised its targeted Fed Funds rate by 0.25%. As we have stated previously, the Fed is very vested in the current economic recovery. They have gone to extraordinary lengths to build this recovery and are not going to jeopardize its durability with rate increases that are not supported by economic strength. Additionally, the Federal Reserve is not looking to slow an overheated economy, but to simply back out the highly accommodative emergency measures put in place in 2008. As such, they have stated that this is going to be a more gradual, slower tightening process than in previous cycles. Rates are currently so low that for at...